Introduction: Bangladesh
One of the places that will be more severely affected than most is Bangladesh and the areas that surround it. Bangladesh is the small country on the border of India and Burma on the coast of the Bay of Bengal, located in the Delta of the Ganges river. Most of the land is only a mere 12 meters above sea level. Sitting near the tropic of Cancer it is in a tropical climate with a mild winter through October-November, summer during December-February and a rainy season from March-May. These rains are brought in by winds called Monsoon. The amount of rain varies each year, sometimes it brings too little causing drought in the dry seasons. But usually it coincides with the water coming from the Himalayas causing serious floods. Despite it being prone to all these natural disasters which also include tornadoes, cyclones and tidal bores, it still has a population of about 150,448,340 (1045/km²), making it one of the most densely populated countries on Earth and still has quite a high growth rate. The majority of this population is rural and live by farming. The risk of disease is also high. Being a developing country Bangladesh has not contributed to global warm as much as most, but still they feel the effects of it harder than others.
Impacts
Already climate change has taken it's toll on the country. Because of it's large population in such a condensed area even the slightest change in climate has shown effects. In Bangladesh, where people are already struggling under the pressures of already present food and water shortages, severe natural disasters and shortage of land due to the ever growing population , under the stress of climatic change is likely to be a place for a great humanitarian catastrophe. This will either be caused directly by the physical effects of global warming or by the impacts it has on other areas of life. These impacts include:
~Weather Patterns
As I have mentioned before, Bangladesh has always been a subject to a somewhat extreme climate, with normally occurring floods, droughts and storms. Even with the variability in the monsoon rains, the patterns in weather remained to a overall constant level with a period of drought and a period of rainfall that could be predicted to some level. The stability of this rainfall is crucial in that around two thirds of the populations income relies on agriculture. As a consequence of climate change the natural weather, that by itself causes the citizens of the country grief has intensified. The monsoon periods have been condensed into a shorter period of time causing both extreme flooding and severe droughts. Also coastal storms and cyclones have become more frequent. The cyclone in Sidr in November 2007 is what scientist are expecting to see more often around that region, it was said to have an around 10,000 death toll. Already 10 million people are threatened by these erratic weather patterns. This will no doubt have further effect on the development of social and economical developments.
~Sea Level Rise
Bangladesh is one of the many low lying countries in the world, only reaching about 12 meters above sea level. Because of it's coastal position and flat terrain it is prone to storm surges, in the past causing damage to up to 100 km inland. Now with the melting of Artic and other ice caps increasing the rate of sea level rise the tidal water in the area is already at an abnormally high level. Over the next 50 years, experts expect it to rise by a meter. This may not seem like very much but just this elevation in height would submerge about one third of the coastline, leaving about 20 million Bangladeshi without a home.
~Himalayan Glaciers Melting
The retreat of the Himalayan glaciers is another huge threat to livelihood in Bangladesh. Because of global warming, like in the Artic and other places, the melting of ice on the Himalayas has been accelerated producing larger volumes of water to run through the various rivers which originate from it. Two main rivers that stem from the mountains are the Ganges and the Brahmaputra. Bangladesh sits in the delta of these to great rivers, so not only will the extra water contribute to the rise in sea level the enhance water level in the deltas also result in extreme floods. This is not helped by the soft, malleable soil or silt that borders rivers and coastal areas, because of this it is easier for bank erosion. It is another main cause to the loss of valuable land. Many of the poor living on silt islands, called shoars, which on an average last up to 20 years, have been displaced more frequently. This loss of land isn't made up for with the normal creation of new land as locals say that siltation has seemed to be decreasing.
The volume of water also disrupts the balanced distribution of sediments in rivers and coastal areas. This results in higher bed levels and in turn higher water levels adding to the initial dilemma of the water level in rivers. Sediment distribution may also be disrupted by the continual protection of lands against flooding.
Although these Himalayan glaciers cause extreme floods which endangers humans and land they are still the lifeblood of Bangladesh, providing the country will most of it's fresh water.When the rivers aren't flooding the country faces a severe drought which is not good for a country where agriculture takes up 21% of the economy. The droughts continue to worsen as more and more of the ice disappear. One of the countries leading climatologists, Professor Ainun Nishat says that in 2 to 5 years the Himalayan glaciers might disappear completely .
~Water Salinity
In coastal areas the rising sea level has caused salt water intrusion in estuaries and fresh groundwater. The reduced fresh water flow in the months from December onward have allowed salt water penetration to move even further inland. In the Sundarban nature reserve, home to the largest population of tigers left in the wild, the Sundri trees have started dying from the top down as a result, also the composition of many forests will gradually change likely effecting Bangladesh's plant and animal biodiversity. The salinity has not only effected the flora and fauna, it will also effect the lives of people through agriculture and lack of water resources . Many coastal lands are now incapable of producing crops and with other crops the production has lessened. Rice farmers have switched from their normal produce to farming prawns as theirs lands have become to salty to grow anything. Bangladeshi farmers are now only able to produce 8 tons of rices per hectare in comparison to China's 17 tons. Salty water is also thought to have an effect on pregnant woman and their unborn children, causing high blood pressure and possibly causing complications after birth. Along with the receding glaciers and the accelerated evapotranspiration in plants the salt water intrusion is a big threat to the availability of fresh water. Should it continue, Bangladeshi will either be forced to drink salt water or find another source.
~Food Shortage
The food shortage in Bangladesh would probably be the cause of 2 main factors. The first would be the hindrance to the countries agricultural production along with other industries suffering the impacts of global warming such as perhaps the fishing industry, industries that require the use of fresh water or maybe resources that have become scare or industries that rely on the foreign investment of an area that might be affected in the area is in risk of extreme weather due to climate change. Since the produce of the country would continue lessen so would the profit gained, also since the production of the crops and other food has been decreased a self grown supply of food might be harder to maintain. The second is that prices for food world wide has increased, because they too are becoming more scare and some of the remaining stocks of food is being used to create bio fuel. The price of rice in Asia has risen by 74% just in the past year. Hundreds of Bangladeshi already paying nearly 80% of their income on food, with it's current economy if the prices continue to climb, will not be able to withstand it for much longer. About 30 million out of the total 150 million population are estimated to possibly starve if the current situation goes on.
~Health
Extreme weather patterns and temperature rise are also a threat to human health. This is the case either directly, with stress due to temperature or injury from flooding, or indirectly through disease vectors, water borne diseases, air quality and/or food and water quality and availability. In Bangladesh where it is densely populated and reoccurring natural disasters take place there is a risk of both. Hot and cold temperatures can potentially cause illnesses like heat stress and hypothermia also increasing the fatalities for heart and lung disease. Extreme weather events take many lives and injure thousands of others in storms and floods as I have mentioned before. They too are partially responsible for the lack of food and clean water causing malnutrition and many water borne diseases due to failure in nature drainage. In 2007 diarrhoea was contracted by 53,000 people from drinking contaminated water and consuming stale food. The change in climate has also caused blooms of blue-green algae to form, scientifically proven to be associated with the epidemic of cholera in Bangladesh. Malaria doesn't seem to pose much of a threat, if the temperature were to rise as predicted the mosquitoes range might even decrease but that is the only positive occurrence. The most vulnerable to these health impacts is the poorer population as they have less access to food and clean water and are so more susceptible to things like chronic malnutrition, cholera and diarrhoea. These impacts might even be able to outweigh the various efforts to provide nutrition to people in need which have been created in the past decade.
~Loss of Biodiversity
The saline water intrusion and change in weather patterns doesn't only effect the people, the wide variety of plant diversity and animal species are also effected. The rich fertile soil deposited by the rivers and Bangladesh's warm and humid climate has lead it to hold many endemic and other species of plants. About 17.62% of the total land is covered in forest, both tropical and semi-evergreen. But because of climate change they might become threatened. Natural disasters like storms and floods along with soil erosion could damage or submerge plant species and animal populations. If the sea level were to rise as predicted the mangrove forest along the coasts, the Bengal tiger and around 100 species of bird could disappear. The saline water intrusion and droughts could also cause more plants, like the Sundri tree to wither or dry out. The changes in temperature and the amount of precipitation can change the composition of the forest and how it functions. This could weaken the forests unique plants, making it easier for intrusive species to overrun them. With the plants disappearing animals depending on them for food or shelter would also become extinct, rupturing many ecosystems. Lastly, with the amount of inhabitable space decreasing and the country's population growing the might see fit to clear the forest for living space or profit. Seeing the current situation the people of Bangladesh will have to take action or face a huge loss in their countries biodiversity.
~Impact on political issues
Problems with the environment can also enhance political instability. In 1970, when Bangladesh was hit with a typhoon it added to the frustration the people felt against the Pakistan government that they joined up with in 1947 when Pakistan and India became separate. Initial frustration caused by the distance between the allied countries and the fact that India was between them. They revolted and along with India waged war on Pakistan later gaining their independence. Now something similar could happen, Bangladesh being a politically unstable country. Climate Change might not alone cause civil war, but it could result in conflicts in particularly vulnerable places.
How can people adapt??
As individuals I suppose there is very little that you can do. Solutions such as water storage and irrigation are expensive as a the solutions to water salinity. With most farmers struggling to get a hold of money for food things like these are out of reach. The only affordable solution is to find an alternative income. Many rice farmers are turning to the farming of prawns but their has now also been a new strain of rice developed more resistant to water salinity. Raising ducks is also profitable even as some get washed away in floods, they still produce a sufficient income. Farming fish in waterlogged farmer might prove as a solution as well, if the farmer can remain so. Another option is making floating gardens or dap chas, gardens made on floating beds of hyacinth (a bulbous plant related to the lily).
The government has already taken action, supporting a 4 billion dollar plan to build embankments, cyclone shelters and roads hoping it will mitigate the threat of the rising sea level and flooding, along with reinforcing some houses. There are now dyke's built to shield from the sea, though they seem to obstruct water from getting out and don't do anything against saline water intrusion. Though some think they will withstand the rising sea level as it does in Zeeland in the Netherlands, others say that the 230 rivers in Bangladesh are too dynamic too be retain like the ones in the Netherlands. The government has also launched a food drive to possibly bring them closer to food security.
NGOs (Non Government Organizations) have also helped in the aiding of the Bangladeshi.One organization educating farmers on how to rear ducks, making income possibly even during floods. A organization called Friendship helps by providing house, latrines, capitals for agriculture, pumps for irrigation and floating hospitals.
Further measures that could be taken would be a long term plan to store up food to insure food security, the education of measures that individuals can take against the impacts of climate change (like duck rearing), a method whereby people can be alerted of storms and cyclones, perhaps the development of more crops able to grow with little water and salty grounds and reforestation. If the worst case scenario were to occur, arrangements for migration will also be needed.
Countries producing large amounts of carbon dioxide, such as USA and Australia, should also be responsible for the country, as it as a developing country only contributes to a very small amount of green house gases and are only suffering the consequences of our actions. We should compensate for some of the costs that Bangladesh has come to bear or aid in migration or in some other way. The UK was one of the first to respond, helping to guarantee international help with climate change.Other countries should follow in suit.
What could be the future??
I may have already mentioned possible futures throughout my report. In the next 50 years the sea level could rise by 1 meter displacing 20 million people adding to the 45 million other displaced by flooding. Because of the shortage of land and the over population the majority of these people would most likely become 'climate migrants' moving to India and other surrounding countries. If the sea continues to rise it could possibly result in the inundation of the entire country. The sea level rises would also result in more salt water intrusion. Combined with the disappearing of Himalayan glacier and the possible disintegration of the monsoon rains might lead to the complete lack of fresh water in the country. Crops wouldn't be able to cultivate adding to food shortage and economic problems. Bangladesh's biodiversity would be hugely affected as well. The growing amount of illnesses could be the undoing of years of work done by organizations to insure the health of the people. Whatever one of these futures it may turn out to be they will all certainly lead to many deaths. Reducing emissions and reforestation could help prevent such a future from happening. Some say it's already too late.
How does it have affect globally??
The main affect these things will have outside Bangladesh is the huge amount of climate migrants pouring into India. Dhaka is now one of the fastest growing cities because of this, migrants filling up it's shanty towns. India may not be able to support the huge amount of migrants in addition to it's own big population, that coupled with food shortage and perhaps existing conflict might result in civil war.
What is happening in Bangladesh could become a morale issue among countries emitting large amounts of greenhouse gases as they are not responsible for what's happening to them. It could also maybe lead to political tension between Bangladesh in these countries as they are being punished for what the others have caused.
All in all, it is us who makes the choice whether developing countries, like Bangladesh suffer. If we don't do anything as people of the developed world the reduce the effects of climate change the countless men and women dying in storms, from illness and/or starvation will be on our conscience. As we are just now noticing climate change with hotter summers, people in other places are struggling under effects of much greater magnitude. If nothing is done, for these people the results will be disastrous.
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